Guest blog by James Curran (LINK Honorary Fellow) and Sam Curran
When I retired from paid work, I was eager to dive back into science. For years, I had an idea brewing that – if my hypothesis was right – would have important consequences for the planet, but I never had the time to explore it. Teaming up with my son Sam, we embarked on this journey, convinced that our simple idea must have already been investigated. Surprisingly, it hadn’t.
As independent scientists, we relied on publicly available data for our investigation. Fortunately, when it comes to carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere, there’s a wealth of open-access data. The longest record comes from the Mauna Loa Observatory, perched on top of a volcano in Hawaii, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and fairly close to the Equator. This high-quality data record started in 1957 and continues to this day.
When plotted over time, these data form the well-known Keeling Curve. The saw-tooth pattern of the curve (Figure 1) is particularly intriguing. It occurs because most of the Earth’s land mass is in the Northern Hemisphere and, during the northern summer, the abundant vegetation of the North absorbs a huge amount of CO2 from the atmosphere.
In the northern winter, some of this CO2 is released back into the atmosphere through natural biodegradation of dead vegetation, but a portion remains locked in roots, soil, and dormant woody matter. The portion of CO2 drawn out by vegetation and locked away is known as natural sequestration. The overall curve of CO2 concentrations rises year-on-year, of course, due to the additional anthropogenic CO2 emissions that we pump out continuously.
For our research, we focused on the curve’s saw-tooth pattern because it is a direct reflection of the overall health of the Earth’s biosphere and, particularly, its ability to provide some balance against CO2 emissions.
It is worth noting here a widely held belief that sequestration is increasing globally due to a) warming temperatures that encourage vegetation growth, especially in sub-Arctic regions, and b) higher atmospheric CO2 acting as a fertiliser of plant growth. However, it’s also acknowledged that sequestration will likely decline at some point in the future due to heat stress, wildfires, drought, storms, floods, and the spread of new pests and diseases. Enhanced seasonal permafrost melt may also release additional CO2 into the atmosphere.
In 2016, we published a couple of short peer-reviewed articles relating to this topic. Now, almost ten years later, it seemed like a good time to validate our earlier, tentative findings. Our third paper, recently published, reinforces the earlier and alarming finding that natural sequestration peaked in 2008 (the earlier work suggested 2006) and is now declining. It had been increasing at 0.8% per year in the 1960s but is now declining at 0.25% per year. To put this in perspective, sequestration would have increased by half in 50 years, whereas it would now decline by half in about 250 years. Does this matter? Absolutely.
Currently, atmospheric CO2 increases by about 2.5 parts per million (ppm) each year. If the biosphere’s sequestration ability had continued growing as it did in the 1960s, the annual increase would now be smaller at +1.9 ppm per year. That’s a big difference.
Right now, just to make up for declining sequestration, anthropogenic emissions would need to fall by 0.3% per year. This is substantial, considering emissions have been increasing at roughly +1.2% per year.
These damaging effects will only get worse as the decline of sequestration is accelerating.
Everyone reading this blog will well understand the implications. The climate and nature emergencies are locked together.
It’s urgent that every effort is made to rebuild biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, including sequestration. Deforestation must stop. Nature restoration must be encouraged. Forest fires must be prevented. For large-scale habitats, which are more resilient and offer enhanced ecosystem services, defragmentation must be prioritized. Soil must be nurtured. Timber and fibre products must be reused for as long as possible, as part of a wider circular economy.
All this in addition to an end to burning of fossil fuels – of course.
The hypothesis we held for many years, as feared, has proven correct. Retirement may be upon me, but for my son, my granddaughter – for all our loved ones and for future generations, the need for action grows ever greater, ever more radical, and ever more urgent.
The way that we use the land underpins much of our lives and the ways that we experience the places around us. How Scotland’s land is owned, used and managed is not only central to the economy and the natural environment, but it is key to the wellbeing of individuals and communities.
Land use planning is especially important when it comes to tackling the twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss. The ways that we farm, where we build our towns, and how we manage our natural resources all have profound impacts for wildlife and for greenhouse gas emissions. In order to make the progress necessary to achieve net zero by 2045 and meet our nature restoration targets, we need to change the way we use land in Scotland.
With so many interests to balance, the Scottish Government produces a Land Use Strategy (now in its third edition) to outline high-level principles and a long-term vision for sustainable land use. Transferring this ambition to action on the ground isn’t easy, and this is where Regional Land Use Partnerships, or ‘RLUPs’, come in.
RLUPs were intended to bring together the relevant stakeholders within a region to work in partnership to optimise land use in a fair and inclusive way. These partnerships included representatives from local and national government, communities, landowners, land managers and other stakeholders who would help shape land use decisions in light of the principles and objectives of the Land Use Strategy. Through collaboration, it was hoped that these partnerships would develop a framework for land use that would meet both local and national objectives and support Scotland’s transition to net zero by 2045.
With the pilots now complete, the question is: where do we go from here?
To help review the success of RLUPs and consider the future of strategic land use planning in Scotland, Scottish Environment LINK’s Land Use & Reform Group commissioned a report by Brady Stevens of SAC Consulting.
This new report emphasises the potential for Regional Land Use Partnerships (RLUPs), which, if given the necessary support, it sees as a fit-for-purpose model for future land use planning. The report also highlights a series of recommendations for the Scottish Government that could enable Regional Land Use Partnerships to achieve significantly greater impacts. These include, among others, a recommitment from the Scottish Government to the model, the rollout of RLUPs across Scotland, and the provision of appropriate resources to these partnerships.
Importantly, the report argues that Scotland already has the basis of the infrastructure needed to deliver its environmental objectives as part of a strategic approach to land use, and there would be considerable benefits in strengthening the ability of RLUPs to influence decision-making around land use, particularly in relation to public and private investment in nature.
As the report notes, “the most expedient route to impact does not involve reinventing the wheel. The key need is for people who are enabled to act as connectors, joining national targets and existing resources with local groups who have the skills and connections to get the work done.”
We urgently need to help Scotland’s seas recover. On paper, Scotland has a network of marine protected areas, intended to help conserve our fantastic ocean wildlife. The Scottish government is required to design and implement fishing restrictions for each marine protected area. But these crucial protections are more than ten years overdue.
Scottish Environment LINK asked supporters to write personal messages to Gillian Martin, Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy, telling her why they care about Scotland’s seas, and why they want the Scottish government to protect our marine protected areas without further delay.
The messages came from across the country, from people with first-hand experience of the decline of our seas, and from people concerned about the world their children and grandchildren will inherit if we don’t act now.
Here are just some of those powerful messages…
I have lived on the shores of Loch Hourn since 1975 and for much of that time I made a living from the sea (crab and lobster fishing, mussel farming). I have watched as the marine ecology has declined to the state that now there are virtually no wild Atlantic salmon, very few mackerel in the summer and almost no cod or pollock remain. Richard, Highland
The waters around our shores are becoming barren and wasted because of pollution and over-fishing. We must take difficult decisions to ensure that the seas around our coasts can sustain our wildlife and ourselves. This is an investment in our futures. Pauline, Na h-Eileanan Siar
Having been a keen Scuba diver for years and seen the wonders in the seas, I have appreciated being able to see the beauty of it all. We have watched fishing boats come in and devastate the floor of the sea with their trawling in protected waters. So I strongly support the protection of marine areas. Maggie, Clackmannanshire
Living in Macduff on the Moray Firth I am aware how critical fishing is to the local economy, but as the disappearance of the herring shoals in the last century [and] dwindling stocks of many species show, protection is essential now if the industry is to survive to benefit future generations. Neville, Aberdeenshire
As a long-time marine biologist I am concerned at delays in implementing protections for important habitats. Out of sight should not be out of mind, as often happens with marine habitats. Clare, Perth and Kinross
Having been brought up in the north west of Scotland I’ve seen far too much evidence of the damage caused when we don’t look after the marine environment. Our sea beds are in crisis after years and years of destruction. We must do all we can to protect what’s left. Mairi, Stirling
It takes millions of years to create a coral reef and seconds to destroy it. Rosemary, Edinburgh
I grew up beside the sea, the son of a fisherman who gave his life to his work and helped two of his sons to follow him. Small boats and sustainable. They gave up in mid life as they could no longer make a living. Very large fishing vessels arrived and more or less destroyed the fishing by using ten times the amount of creels my family did and that was only one boat! Please do something now or it will be too late. Peter, East Renfrewshire
Myself and my wife go on litter picks on a regular basis to our nearest beaches. But it is the damage to the marine environment that we cannot see, cannot pick up and bin, that worries me the most. Ian, Edinburgh
From my house I hear the sound of scallop dredgers from the Isle of Man destroying our seabed, despite the Sound of Jura being a Marine Protected Area. Pinkie, Argyll and Bute
As a mother, I am extremely concerned about the climate crisis and its effects on Scotland and the future of my children in this country. On a recent trip to the coast I was horrified to notice the lack of wildlife, and on further investigation to learn how depleted our seas are becoming – one of our country’s most beautiful and important assets. Aimee, Falkirk
Protecting our ocean habitats from the most destructive types of fishing is a no-brainer – healthier seas, healthier people, healthier wildlife, improved fish stocks and wildlife tourism, immense carbon capture… surely this has to be a priority for the Scottish Government. Caroline, Highland
I have been sailing on the west coast of Scotland for 60+ years and have been very concerned about the reduction on all wildlife over that time. A very visual example of this is effect on phosphorescence which has nearly disappeared. As a boy I would see the light created by rowing and even more dramatic when diving into the water. Mike, Edinburgh
I am a scuba diver and know only too well how amazing but fragile the sea bed and marine ecosystems are. I want my grandchildren to be able to see what I have seen. Annette, Highland
I have had the great fortune to travel to beautiful countries that prioritise nature because they know just how vital the health of the planet’s ecosystems for the future of human health. I have seen Marine Protected Areas that are truly being protected, and I have heard the stories from local fishermen who know firsthand how effective these can be for increasing fish stocks in neighbouring waters. It truly is a win-win. Hayley, Edinburgh
I am old enough to remember angling from the piers in Oban in the 1970s and catching Cod and Pollack that were large enough to take home to eat. When was the last time anyone went angling off these piers? I have never seen anyone do so in the last 25 years. There are simply no fish to catch there since their spawning grounds were decimated by the inshore bottom trawling that has taken place since the 1980s. Jonathan, Argyll and Bute
We live near the coast where there was seafloor vacuuming occurring for days and nights and from which it is still, 30 years later, recovering. Beryll, Highland
Many years ago, I was on a boat using dredges to fish for scallops. I saw the damage these did to the sea bed, so I’m well aware of how much our waters need protection. Brian, Argyll and Bute
I was really surprised and appalled to learn that trawler fishing is still allowed in marine protected areas. Joanna, Highland
I am a researcher working on translation and marine mammal ecology, currently on a project in the U.S. I have seen the wonders marine protection can do in North America. I wish the same for my home country, Scotland. Sebnem, Edinburgh
I live in Orkney, so I am never far from the sea. I am increasingly concerned about the decline in animal and plant species both on land and in the sea due to habitat loss, pollution and damaging operations such as trawling. I believe we ignore these issues at our peril! Sally, Orkney Islands
Don’t let Scotland’s marine environments become wastelands. Julie, East Dunbartonshire
I have spent many years volunteering for Whale and Dolphin Conservation. In my time volunteering with them I have had the pleasure of seeing a multitude of marine life both above and below the water’s surface… Whales and dolphins face many threats including bycatch, entanglement and prey depletion. Implementing effective fisheries management measures throughout Scotland’s MPAs is integral to ensuring that these sensitive species thrive in our waters. R, Na h-Eileanan Siar
All evidence suggests that when significant fishery projection measures are in place, especially those restricting bottom trawling, the wildlife, the tourism industry and ultimately the local fishermen themselves benefit from a more diverse and productive marine environment. Paul, Aberdeenshire
I am a Scuba diver who has dived every year in Scottish waters since 1976, and have seen a decline in both species numbers and diversity in that time. I am disgusted when I see the damage done in our shallower waters by dredging activities – species and their habitats ripped up from the seabed and scattered about in ruins. Jeff, Sheffield
I am a teacher and how can I expect the children at school to care about the environment if they see evidence that the Scottish government isn’t doing it’s very best to help. Amanda, East Lothian
Top image: Cath Bain, Whale and Dolphin Conservation
Here we are at the start of 2025. We’re half way through the UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration and half way towards the Global Biodiversity Framework target to ‘take urgent action to halt and reverse biodiversity loss to put nature on a path to recovery for the benefit of people and planet’. We also have the Paris agreement target, which states that to ‘limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030’. So with five years left, where are we at the start of 2025, and what can we do to change things?
We know that 2024 was the first year to exceed 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels (Copernicus Global Climate Highlights 2024). The 2023 State of Nature Scotland report confirmed that 11% of species in Scotland are threatened by extinction. Key pressures on Scotland’s species are still pollution, agriculture, unsustainable sea use, climate change and invasive non-native species. Scotland’s Biodiversity Intactness Index, which measures the health of our ecosystems, is amongst the lowest in the G7 countries.
These statistics and pressures have not changed since the 2019 State of Nature Scotland report, despite another three years of policy making. How, then, can we make the kind of changes that are now even more urgently needed, within a tighter timescale and with rising evidence of irreversible change?
The changes I think we need to put in place in order to turn these statistics around include:
Much swifter uptake of low emissions technology, particularly in transport and energy use
Putting nature connectivity at the centre of land use decision making and planning, as an essential and non-negotiable part of our national infrastructure
Changes in marine management to protect critical and vulnerable marine habitats
Funding to enable investment in nature friendly farming and fishing
Deer management to reduce deer numbers to sustainable levels
And here’s what I believe needs to happen in Scotland’s political and policy-making sphere to make these changes possible:
Building momentum
The next Scottish election is in 2026: the environment and the nature and climate emergencies in particular need to be above party politics. That means building momentum in putting in place key incentives and investment to protect against future expense and higher levels of damage.
Regulation
Actions that contribute to climate change and biodiversity loss must be regulated against, with fair protections to enable changes to be made in a timely fashion. These necessary regulations must not be derailed by party politics or electioneering.
Public goods
The public good of a healthy environment, resilient to change and able to support vital ecosystem services, must be pursued wholeheartedly by Scottish Government who cannot afford to be diverted by vested interests looking to maximise their own agendas to the detriment of the environment.
Information
Mis-information and dis-information about climate change, and the environment must be called out and neutralised.
Just transition
Scotland’s Just Transition ambitions must be delivered so that local communities can build, see and support their own sustainable future.
International leadership
Scotland’s role in international politics must be harnessed: Scotland has a reputation in global politics as a forward thinking, outlooking country with leading climate and environmental reputation. Demonstrating leadership from 2025 onwards, in our increasingly fractured world, is a key role for Scotland, helping others commit to standards to achieve a sustainable future for young people and the planet
All this must happen against the background of a new president in the United States whose anti-environment agenda runs counter to a sustainable future for the planet. With one of the world’s most powerful countries out of action on climate and biodiversity it is going to fall to other states to provide the leadership and vision the planet and our global future requires.
It’s not easy to see where this is going to come from. But it is clear that 2025 is most definitely not the time to row back or delay on action. Science and our own day to day experiences are telling us all we must act now.
Dr Deborah Long, Chief Executive at Scottish Environment LINK
Guest blog by Caitlin Paul, Marine Policy Officer at RSPB Scotland
As someone who has always had a deep love for Scottish seas and the vibrant marine life it supports, I’ve recently focused my passion on seabirds, and over the past year, I’ve become increasingly fascinated by these remarkable creatures. Every year, Scotland’s rugged coasts, islands, and towering cliffs come alive as seabirds flock to nest, breed, and raise their young. Puffins, with their striking beaks and almost clown-like appearance, perform impressive deep dives to catch fish for their chicks, known adorably as “pufflings”. Fulmars, a grey and white seabird related to the albatross, gracefully glide over the sea surface, snatching up food as they go, spitting out a surprising defence mechanism – a stomach oil they spray at predators. Meanwhile, gannets dive spectacularly into the sea, travelling as fast as 60mph into the water to catch fish.
The diversity and uniqueness of these seabirds is remarkable, yet their survival is increasingly threatened as they face a relentless wave of challenges, and it’s now widely acknowledged that urgent action is needed. Climate change and overfishing are impacting their food supplies, making it harder to feed their young. Adult seabirds die when they become caught in fishing nets as unintended bycatch, while poorly planned offshore wind farms cause death through collisions and disrupt seabird flight patterns, meaning they must fly further to feed their young. Meanwhile on land, invasive species like rats and mink wreak havoc on their breeding islands during nesting seasons when chicks and adults alike can be targeted. And on top of all of this we saw recently that avian flu can rip through colonies wiping out huge numbers in a breeding season.
These threats have had devasting impacts on seabirds. The most recent census which counts breeding seabirds across Britain and Ireland around every 20 years, Seabirds Count, published in October 2023, revealed that 70% of Scotland’s seabird species are in decline since the last census, with as many as seven seabird species experiencing declines of over 50%. On top of that, these shocking figures were taken before the recent outbreaks of Avian flu, which decimated some colonies. Results shows that the disease had a massive impact on Great Skua, with a 76% decline, and the Northern Gannet, with a 22% decline. These studies were taken into account and reflected in the recently published Birds of Conservation Concern report which reported the largest ever increase in the number of UK seabirds on the red list. Of the 23 out of 25 UK seabirds that make their home and raise their young in Scotland, 9 are now included on the red list, with 12 on the Amber list and only 2 on the green list.
It’s clear that we must act now to save our seabirds. The Scottish Government has launched its Seabird Action Plan which is now out for consultation, running until the beginning of March. This is hugely welcome and offers a critical opportunity to show public support for saving our seabirds. The plan sets out a series of actions that if delivered effectively, and with strong funding behind them, should start to reverse the fortunes of our beleaguered seabird populations.
To help seabirds recover, clear measures are needed that will:
Protect seabird prey fish species to ensure seabirds have plentiful food
End the ongoing bycatch of seabirds by fisheries to minimise adult seabird deaths
Clear all Scottish seabird islands of invasive predators – and prevent them from returning – to defend seabirds and their young
Protect the most important areas for our seabirds on land and sea to provide safe spaces for breeding, feeding, and rearing their young
Ensure marine development delivers positive funding and outcomes for climate and nature
RSPB were part of the working group that helped develop the Scottish Seabird Action Plan and these elements are included, but the plan needs to be as robust and clear as possible and importantly lead to urgent action supported by strong funding. We are urging anyone who cares about seabirds to respond to the consultation and have suggested some additional points that we feel are needed. The link below makes it easy for you to let the Scottish Government know these measures are a priority.
In taking the time to do this you can help Scottish seabird populations build resilience, enabling them to thrive and better withstand present and future threats.
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are designated spaces of the ocean and seas where human activities are regulated to protect natural resources and biodiversity. These areas are well-evidenced conservation tools to preserve marine species and habitats and enhance the resilience of marine ecosystems against threats such as climate change and overfishing. Scotland, like many countries, is committed to protecting at least 30% of its land and sea area by 2030, commonly shortened to “30 by 30”.
On 19th December 2024, the Scottish Government published its statutory report to parliament on Scotland’s inshore and offshore MPAs, which is required every 6 years. This report is a respective requirement of Section 103 of the Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 and section 124 of the Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009.
Progress welcomed
LINK members welcome the publication of the report to Parliament. The 2024 report considers the entire MPA network (including sites formerly designated under EU law, such as Special Areas of Conservation and Special Protection Areas), which builds on the 2018 edition.
Progress is welcome regarding the designation of sites. In 2018, Scotland had a network of 217 MPAs, but it now comprises a total of 233 sites.
In 2020 the Scottish Government designated four inshore MPAs for mobile species and 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA) for marine birds and seabirds. In 2022 theNorth Orkney and Scapa Flow SPAs were also designated. The same year, LINK members welcomed the permanent designation of the Red Rocks and Longay MPA to protect a newly discovered and extremely rare nursery ground for hundreds of flapper skate eggs,a critically endangered relative of sharks and rays.
Most importantly, the 2024 report to Parliament provides case studies showing localised positive effects on priority marine features (PMFs). In Loch Carron, designated as an “emergency” MPA in 2017 and made permanent in 2018, the flame shell beds that were damaged by scallop dredge activity are showing promising signs of recovery. This incident underscores the importance of proactively protecting vulnerable marine features before damage is done. The Loch Sunart to the Sound of Jura MPA for flapper skate exemplifies the benefits of restrictions on bottom-towed fishing. Monitoring of the site shows an increase in the abundance of flapper skates following the introduction of fishing restrictions in 2016. This case demonstrates the benefits of spatial management measures for mobile species, essential to safeguard populations of long-lived, slow-growing species such as flapper skate. LINK members particularly welcome the role of citizen science, such as recreational angling groups, and community engagement in the management and monitoring of the Loch Sunart to the Sound of Jura MPA.
New designations alone will not ensure the recovery of our seas.
In a report published in 2023, Professor James Harrison, an expert in marine environmental law from the University of Edinburgh, highlighted critical gaps in Scotland’s MPA network, both in terms of designations and the management measures that still need to be implemented.
Despite having a network of MPAs encompassing 38% of its seas, the majority of Scotland’s MPAs do not have restrictions in place for some of the most damaging or widespread pressures in the sea. The Scottish Government has committed to deliver a public consultation on fisheries management measures within MPAs and on the protection of Priority Marine Features (PMFs) outside MPAs. However, this commitment has repeatedly been delayed. A consultation on the fisheries management measures in offshore MPAs was published in 2024, 10 years after the designation of the first Scottish sites. Marine stakeholders and communities are still awaiting its counterpart on the remaining inshore MPA sites and the protection of vulnerable seabed habitat PMFs outside MPAs.
Since the start of the process to develop fisheries management measures for MPAs, they have been implemented in only a few inshore sites, covering less than 0.6% of the seabed that has beenhistorically subject to bottom-towed fishing activities. This underscores that current safeguards for our MPAs aren’t likely to make a big difference in reducing the amount of fishing activity that harms the seabed habitats and the species that depend upon them.
Professor Harrison’s report highlights the need for comprehensive revisions and enhancements to align with international best practices. A more detailed briefing on this report is available here.
Following the shelved proposals to designate Highly Protected Marine Areas in 10% of Scotland’s seas in 2023, LINK members welcomed theScottish Government’s commitment to build greater consensus and its stress on the need to deliver on ecological outcomes. However, clarity on how the Scottish Government intends to align with international commitments and benchmarks is still needed, such as the Global Biodiversity Framework target 2 (“Restore 30% of all Degraded Ecosystems”) and EU Nature Restoration Law. The current scientific evidence base, which must underpin conservation measures, is clear that the biggest threats to marine ecosystems are climate change and unsustainable fishing practices. Implementing the remaining fisheries management measures within MPAs is just one step towards better protection of our seas, focusing on specific species and habitats in specific places based on proposals that were developed 8 years ago. The ocean is all connected and we need to acknowledge that in the way it is managed. We want to see a change in the way fisheries are managed beyond MPAs, as part of a just transition to a fully documented, climate-smart and nature-friendly regime that enables ecosystem recovery and supports sustainable fishing opportunities and coastal communities.
Conclusion
LINK members welcome the progress highlighted in the report to Parliament. However,much more is needed to ensure healthy and resilient marine ecosystems. Simply designating an MPA without putting in place restrictions on damaging activities is meaningless.
Calum Duncan, Head of Policy and Advocacy at the Marine Conservation Society and Convenor of Scottish Environment LINK’s Marine Group said:
“We’re pleased the report shows that measures to protect the most vulnerable inshore sites in 2016 are showing localised signs of working with, for example, increases in flameshells and flapper skate numbers. However, despite welcome action to protect the most vulnerable inshore sites in 2016, most designated areas still lack robust management measures for damaging activities such as bottom towed fishing, and remain ‘paper parks’ until they are in place.
“Scotland’s seas are in a poor state, and we desperately need to safeguard important underwater sites needed to boost ocean health. Further delays will only make recovery harder and risk further damage to our seas. In 2025, the Scottish Government must act decisively to deliver long-awaited protections and live up to crucial legal, policy and international commitments before it is too late.”
By James Curran, Scottish Environment LINK Honorary Fellow
Is the COP process a busted flush? This year we had hopes and expectations raised, yet again, for the COP16 on global biodiversity and for the COP29 on global climate change. It’s fair to say, both were pretty disastrous. “Nobody should be OK with this” said Euronews about COP16. “Travesty of Justice” commented the Guardian on CoP29. In both cases, at least the arguments were more about funding of global action than about any remaining dissent on the science. Groucho Marx said “While money can’t buy you happiness, it certainly lets you choose your own form of misery”. That’s just about where we are now.
Biodiversity continues to decline, while greenhouse gas emissions are at their highest ever. In both cases the science is now totally conclusive. There is even widespread recognition that more than half the world’s GDP, amounting to $58 Tn pa, is dependent on nature. Meanwhile the World Economic Forum places extreme weather, Earth systems, biodiversity collapse, and resource shortages as the top four global risks over the next decade. “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet” says the UN Secretary General, “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell”.
A necessary question is – do the COPs offer that exit ramp?
Reportedly, there were almost 1800 fossil fuel lobbyists attending COP29. Critics suggest the climate CoPs have been undermined, turning them into greenwashing trade shows.
As Henry Ford said “Don’t find fault. Find a remedy”. So what might be the remedy?
Well, climate COPs have to agree by consensus across 196 nations. From the outset the oil producing countries blocked any move to adopt a voting system. Biodiversity COPs can, as a last resort, utilise two-thirds majority voting. So, inevitably, there is a feeling that both COPs only deliver the lowest common denominator. Additionally, there are no sanctions for nations failing to deliver on their stated COP commitments. This is in contrast, say, to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which can, if necessary, vote on resolutions and can also agree to international trade sanctions against defaulters.
Is it time to create a dual approach? Perhaps keep the existing COPs as a back-stop, but create something much more dynamic, focused robustly on delivery? Maybe a Community of Progressives (CoP), with their own annual CoP meetings, most certainly excluding lobbyists and with majority voting powers. This Community could bring together those nations who really seek a healthier and more sustainable planet and who have demonstrated either a track-record of correcting past mistakes, or a history of contributing very little to climate change, or are outstandingly vulnerable to climate impacts. So the Community could well include the likes of the EU, Philippines, India, Morocco, Chile, UK, Egypt, Brazil, Thailand, and Pakistan, as well as Dominica, Solomon Islands, and Samoa, amongst many others. It is probably time also to align the inter-connected global biodiversity and climate efforts into one Community. So, countries delivering determined biodiversity action should also join, including, for example, Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Namibia, Venezuela, Bhutan, Japan, Brazil, and the EU.
Don’t such groupings already exist? Well, some do, but they’re disparate and fragmented. One was created alongside the Glasgow Climate Pact at COP26, formed of 137 countries committed to halting and reversing forest loss and land degradation while others, for example, the long-standing Environmental Integrity Group of nations even encompasses developed and developing nations and straddles both climate and biodiversity. The Accelerator Partnership was created at the Biodiversity COP15. As many as possible of these groups, if judged to be sufficiently dynamic and committed, should obviously join a new high-profile global Community of Progressives.
This Community of Progressives could, hopefully, agree new ambitious pathways, standards and targets to tackle the urgent problems of climate and biodiversity. The Community should also serve to illuminate the painfully slow pace of the traditional COPs, should demonstrate that much more can be done, and, thereby, drag other more recalcitrant nations along in its wake.
The new Community, like the WTO, should embrace a voting structure for decision-making but it also needs incentives and penalties for performance. How can nation states be sanctioned?
Well, the great majority of countries have been assigned sovereign credit ratings, predominantly by the three big US credit ratings agencies, Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, and Moody’s. Other agencies exist, including DBRS Morningstar and Scope Ratings. These agencies are all regulated, for example, by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK which issues them with technical instructions. Currently, the credit ratings agencies pay little or no heed to government actions on climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, or nature restoration. The regulators should address this gap. Surely a government that makes a commitment at a climate or biodiversity COP, and then fails to deliver, is a government not to be trusted? Such a government should be penalised by a significant reduction in credit rating – resulting in much higher interest rates and therefore repayments on international borrowing. However, successful delivery should improve ratings and lead to lower borrowing costs. This can be a very powerful tool – since resultant borrowing costs can easily double or halve (for comparison, UK Government borrowing costs are near 10% of total expenditure).
What about those countries not invited to the first-division Community of Progressives, like say Russia or the USA? They certainly wouldn’t escape the likely penalties from downgraded sovereign ratings, and might even be encouraged by the prospect of improved credit ratings if they step up.
The growing climate and nature emergencies demand new governance structures and new mechanisms that actually deliver. Perhaps leave the old discredited system in place – but it’s surely time to explore different models. Henry Ford again: “If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got”.
Tensions are certainly growing around the COP processes. It seems the USA may walk away again. A group of world leaders wrote an open letter condemning COP as not fit for purpose. Towards the close of COP29, the 44 nations represented by the Alliance of Small Island States and the 46 nations of the Least Developing Countries, stormed out, exasperated by slow and unambitious decision-making. “We are a force to be reckoned with” they said. Yes – together they could build a new highway to hope.
Responding to the draft Scottish budget, Deborah Long, Chief Officer at Scottish Environment LINK, said:
“The First Minister has committed to tackling the environmental crises as a priority for his government. This budget was a test of whether this commitment would be matched by appropriate funding.
“The increased investment in peatland restoration and for the Atlantic rainforest is very welcome. Restoring these vital habitats brings not just biodiversity benefits but is necessary to tackle climate change – and is an excellent use of the Scotwind resource.
“However these budget lines account for only a small proportion of environmental spend and we know there are significant pressures elsewhere.
“While it is positive to see an increase in the Forestry Grant Scheme, this increase only partially restores the significant cuts made last year – and it is important that this investment prioritises native woodland creation.
“Cuts to the budgets of environmental agencies are also very disappointing. While we accept there are pressures across the public sector, we must respond to the environmental crises with the seriousness required. Achieving our targets for nature restoration and the ambitions of the recently published Biodiversity Strategy will rely on people across society, but our environmental agencies have a crucial role to play.
“It does appear that we remain on track to hit the £65 million pledge for the Nature Restoration Fund over the lifetime of the parliament, which is very welcome.
“This is of course a draft Budget and the Scottish Government must find support across the chamber to pass it. We hope that MSPs in all parties will argue for investment in nature in line with the seriousness of the crisis we face and the work that needs to be done.”
Deborah Long, chief officer, Scottish Environment LINK
Nature is crucial for our survival. With six years left to meet the goals and targets of the Global Biodiversity Framework, urgent action is needed. UN Development Agency, UNDP. October 2024
The world’s governments are meeting in Colombia at the COP16 UN biodiversity summit this week to talk about biodiversity loss and how to stop it. Although the UK government is there, the Scottish government is not. As a nation world renowned for our landscapes and wildlife, this is a missed opportunity to contribute to and be inspired by the energy and momentum of these events. That momentum and commitment is not trivial: we will need to recreate that energy somehow back here in Scotland.
At the same time, Scotland is the current President of Regions4, the group of sub national and regional governments working together to halt the loss of biodiversity, halt climate change and meet the UN Sustainable Development goals. Regions4 is empowering regions to end biodiversity loss and bringing the regional voice and knowledge of regional and local initiatives into COP16. At home, Scotland is showing what is possible through its Nature Restoration Fund and its Peatland ACTION fund. So, Scotland’s absence from COP16 is baffling.
What is clear though is that Regions4 is a huge opportunity for Scotland and its partners to show the leadership humanity needs to see on biodiversity. In European terms Scotland’s biodiversity as measured though our biodiversity intactness index is in poor shape, languishing as we do near the bottom.
The scale of Scotland’s leadership will be revealed soon with the publication of the new Scottish Biodiversity Framework and its first delivery plan. This framework needs to be a step change in Scotland’s approach to biodiversity. Anything less will not be sufficient. A huge amount of work has gone into this, with Scottish Environment LINK members alone offering detailed comments in workshops and an 80 page consultation response . We don’t know what the strategy and plan will look like, but we know how they NEED to look for Scotland to meet the strategy’s objective of halting biodiversity loss by 2030 and reversing it through large scale restoration by 2045.
The key test for the framework and plans will be whether the actions outlined in them will together meet these objectives. This requires ambition, collaboration across society and working at scale. It is much more than a repackaging of actions that are already committed to: the State of Nature 2023 Scotland report shows nature continues to decline and we are not yet doing enough. Bending the curve on biodiversity by 2030 will take leadership and courage.
The Framework and plans need to:
Outline the ambition needed to reach nature positive by 2045: Nature targets set in legislation will help define the direction of travel and bring everyone on board. We don’t need to outline all the steps in this first delivery plan, but it needs to set a determination to progress.
Map out how we restore ecosystems on land and at sea: Ecological and systems thinking is needed to build ecological networks. This means thinking and acting at scale on the drivers of biodiversity loss. It includes tackling invasive non native species, deer management to achieve widespread natural woodland regeneration, and improved water and air quality. It also includes actions to meet the 30×30 commitments through maximising the benefits of national parks and protected areas and enabling communities, organisations and groups across Scotland to manage land and sea for nature, connecting up habitats and reconnecting with nature as they go.
Use public funding better: there is no place for perverse subsides in today’s environmental and economic conditions. Public funding must support the provision of public goods to society including carbon sequestration, thriving biodiversity and full access to healthy green and blue spaces.
Plan for biodiversity: local nature network plans are good but insufficient. Local Authorities alone cannot deliver ecologically coherent networks across Scotland. That requires planning at a national level, with guidance on what action is needed where to rebuild ecological connectivity. Ecosystems don’t stick to council boundaries.
Clear lines of responsibility for delivery and monitoring: without ownership and monitoring we won’t get where we need to be and we won’t know how we are doing.
Include Scotland’s people: Scotland’s nature requires us all to be involved. This means enabling people across Scotland to reconnect with nature, as a constituent part of every part of the plan. Integration and collaboration will be key to success.
Leadership and showing success: the proposed six landscape scale projects will help demonstrate leadership at scale and produce results at the geographical scale required over time. Ecological restoration is not quick but acting at scale, in collaboration with local communities and landowners and managers is the most effective approach to take to embed the conditions for change quickly and effectively.
Scotland’s nature needs action. COP16 should be the driver to inspire effective change. The new Framework and Delivery Plan must be the mechanism.
LINK is all about its members. Set up in 1987, LINK exists to be the voice of Scotland’s voluntary environment sector and, as the sector, the voice for Scotland’s environment. In the last 37 years, LINK has amplified the voice of our members and brought the environment into the Scottish Parliament.
Our new strategy to 2030 shows how we plan to continue to do that over the next 6 years. It deliberately takes us to 2030, when the intergovernmental panels for both biodiversity and climate have set targets, to halt biodiversity loss and to reach net zero respectively.
Against a background of ongoing nature loss and ecosystem decline, policy obfuscation and rapidly changing ecosystems, the network takes heart from the advances Scotland has made, particularly through the recent forward thinking Bute House Agreement. The commitments in there have helped Scotland make some steps forward, although not yet enough. We look forward to 2030, determined to continue to work with all political parties to build in the very necessary wins that the environment needs. These wins are not limited to policy change but must extend into delivery of those policies so that the people of Scotland see real and effective change on the ground and at sea.
The more than half a million people who support our members expect nothing less of the sector. Working together, our vision at LINK is:
Scotland’s environment is Connected | Restored | Resilient |
Our society has nature at its heart, benefiting people, communities and the planet.
To reach our vision, our new strategy doubles down on our mission:
LINK supports our members to work together on agreed priorities, in order to effect environmental policy change and delivery in Scotland. We build partnerships that create irresistible momentum towards change.
Our new strategy puts in place the structures to enable us to do this. We have identified 6 key transformations that are required to meet today’s nature and climate challenges: these transformations focus on delivery to meet policy rhetoric, leadership, approaches to land and sea use that are nature and climate friendly, with a major role for the National Planning Framework on land and the National Marine Plan at sea, all centred on a justice approach to ensure a just transition to a climate and nature friendly world.
Our new strategy identifies the activities we, as a network, will need to do over the next 6 years to achieve these transformations. The key mechanisms we will be using centre on partnership working, identifying and building common ground, a clear focus on key issues with outcomes and impacts measuring our success and prioritisation to ensure our limited resources have maximum impact. The driving engines for these transformations are our working groups, led by members, with annual work plans and priorities agreed by members. These groups work together to tackle the key issues and actions needed for progress on land, at sea and across society.
We will also be building on our successes to date: with the nature and climate crises impacting on everyday life, LINK, with our members, has designed and delivered effective campaigns, that are able to bring people’s voices directly into Parliament on a range of issues from marine conservation, to a circular economy and farming policy. Over the last 4 years, these campaigns have provided momentum as well as enabling people from right across Scotland to get involved and have their voice heard. A great example was the book of messages we gave to the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs with quotes from people describing the change they wanted to see her make to farming support. You can read the messages here.
Our Nature Champions initiative was 10 years old in 2023 and we celebrated its success at Parliament with a public exhibition. We will continue to support this initiative, bring a new cohort of politicians into much closer contact and understanding of species and habitats in 2026 after the next election, bringing nature right into the centre of Parliament.
But finally, the key driver for the success of our new strategy is our commitment to work in partnership. As a network, we know that we can and will achieve much more by working together. Our new strategy helps us scale this up, working beyond our membership and with other supporters and other networks, helping others become a voice for the environment and ensuring that all voices for the environment are heard. Our commitment to being inclusive, more equal and diverse by welcoming everyone into the sector is fundamental to how we work. The groundwork laid between 2022 – 2025 through LINK’s Nature for All project, forms a strong foundation for equality, diversity and inclusivity to be a strong thread through our work into the future.
Working in the LINK network proves John Muir’s observation that: when we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe.
The environment is too important and too interconnected to tackle one issue at a time – and the only way we can tackle all the issues that need our urgent attention now, is by working together, one network supporting the infinite ecosystems of the planet. It is an ambitious vision but one that is utterly necessary for everyone in Scotland today and everyone who will live in Scotland in the future.
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When plotted over time, these data form the well-known Keeling Curve. The saw-tooth pattern of the curve (Figure 1) is particularly intriguing. It occurs because most of the Earth’s land mass is in the Northern Hemisphere and, during the northern summer, the abundant vegetation of the North absorbs a huge amount of CO2 from the atmosphere.
